United vs Chelsea Champions League Preview

To preview the first leg of the Champions League Quarter Final against Chelsea, I am going to look at a few key areas that may well decide the game.

United team selection

To be honest, predicting United's team for this game is a bit of a lottery. I could make valid arguments for about three different teams and formations. It appears that our horrendous injury situation is starting to ease and this provides the manager with a multitude of options in the coming weeks. I am presuming that both Fletcher and Ferdinand will be missing for this tie and even if they have made a miraculous recovery after so long out, realistically the best they can hope for is a place on the bench.

After much deliberation, below is the team I think the manager will pick:

My formation is a 4-5-1 which I know is the one favoured by the manager in big European away games. However, I was sorely tempted to go for 4-4-2 as it will probably be more like a Premier League encounter. Although the formation I have chosen is undoubtedly more defensive, the speed merchants on either flank should cause the home team problems and must combine well with Rooney as the lone striker. The Ferguson plan will be to leave themselves in a reasonable position for the second leg. An away goal would be great but I think he would probably take a goalless draw meaning any victory at home would see United progress. I also feel this formation means we can dominate midfield possession and not be overrun like we were in the second half of the league game at Stamford Bridge. My concerns for this formation would be that we will struggle to be a goal threat with Rooney dropping deep in search of the ball leaving the penalty area devoid of attacking presence when the wide men have the ball. 

Another advantage for playing a more attacking 4-4-2 would be to exploit the lack of pace at the heart of the Chelsea defence. Both Terry and Ivanovic are vulnerable in this area and the introduction of Hernandez would keep these two on their toes and allow Rooney to roam. He could also drop back into midfield to help supplement this area when Chelsea has the ball. This would certainly be the bold option but I would expect Sir Alex to be cagey and go more defensive.

The back five pretty much picks itself with Van Der Sar returning in goal after missing West Ham with a slight strain. Scholes and Carrick are tried and trusted midfielders and in my opinion will be joined by Park who often gets the nod in the big games. His energy and drive will be needed in order to support Rooney in this formation and he will also be effective from a defensive point of view. Perhaps a more natural fit for this role would be Anderson who returned to the bench on Saturday. It would be too much of a risk to give him his first start after a period out in such an important physical game. He could well come on mid way through the second half as a replacement for Park and fulfil a more attacking or similar role.

I have chosen Nani and Valencia as my wide men in this formation. As Giggs played a full 90 minutes on Saturday, it might be asking a bit much for him to play a second match of high intensity so soon after. Nani is the only other viable alternative on the left and had some success in the first half of the league match. Luiz's ineligibility means that Boswinga will most likely play for Chelsea at right back. Valencia has had some good battles in recent years with Ashley Cole and he will also be tasked with ensuring that left back does not make it past the half way line too many times.

Up front, Wayne Rooney is likely to take his place looking to build on his match winning haul on Saturday. In this formation, it is possible that he could play on the left on a three with Berbatov or Hernandez up front but I would think this unlikely.

The battle of the full backs

Jonathan Wilson (Guardian journalist and tactics guru) once said that the team that wins the World Cup is the team with the best full backs and looking back over history, you could make a sound case for agreeing with this statement. 

I think something similar could be said for this game at Stamford Bridge. Whoever gets the upper hand out of Evra and Fabio and Cole and Boswinga could help decide the destiny of the result. Chelsea's full backs are a key part of their attacking armoury seeing as they do not possess out and out wingers as United do. Frequently, they are the sole suppliers of width for a narrow Chelsea side and both are suited to playing the game in their opponents half. 

United full backs over the years have evolved from a defensive mindset into a realisation that supporting their winger is a vital part of of their role. This is best illustrated by the metamorphosis of Gary Neville from a primarily defensive full back into a potent attacking weapon in the latter years of his distinguished United career. Down the left, Evra will look to have a similar impact as he did in the league match, where in the first half especially, he was highly effective in creating many two on one situations with Nani against a helpless Ivanovic. Against Chelsea, he knows he may well not have a direct opponent such as Ramires who will hug the touchline and keep the Frenchman occupied. He will therefore be given licence to support Nani once more in the hope of exploiting the defensive weakness prevalent in Boswinga. I would not be surprised to see Ramires being given specific instructions to keep an eye on Evra's runs.

Fabio (or whichever right back is selected) will be given a similar role although he may well have the presence of Malouda to deal with. The little Brazilian has shown a tremendous ability in attack for United in recent weeks and could be a wildcard for the away side in terms of slipping under the radar of Chelsea plans. The presence of Valencia will be a reassuring one as the Ecuadorian will assist his young colleague in defence in attempt to curtail the effectiveness of both Malouda and Cole.

From a Chelsea point of view, I am sure Ancelotti will pinpoint the United full backs as potential weak spots and it is hoped that Evra is back on form after a lacklustre first half on Saturday led to his withdrawal at the interval. He will no doubt detail Malouda to take on Fabio and try to draw a foul which brings the opportunity to strike a dangerous free kick into the box.

Midfield conundrum

As mentioned earlier, the boss will be having nightmares trying to pick the correct team to get the result required on Wednesday. If he goes for a 4-4-2 (see below picture), he knows that although likely to provide an away goal due to its attacking effect on the team, it could also leave the side short in the engine run and a similar outcome to the recent league match materialises. This formation is much more likely in the return leg if United are chasing the game. The extra man in the centre allows for more stability and takes the pressure off Scholes from a defensive point of view. United fans will want to see the little master at the hub of everything this week as, if allowed, he could run the game for the Reds with sensible passes wide to the wingers and their accompanying full backs. As was demonstrated in the second half of the league game, when the intensity rises, he can get overrun and with his tendency to mis-time tackles and United could lose control of the game.

An alternative team and formation

Ideally, I would like to have a more attacking third midfielder than Park who would be able to support Rooney up front and this is where 4-5-1 can quickly become 4-3-3 and very much an attacking option rather than a defensive one that United display. It is possible that Rooney could be asked to play this role, similar to how he played against Arsenal in the FA Cup and it is one that I feel he could fulfil in time but it would be a risk employing such a strategy in an important game like this.

Having seen Chelsea against Stoke on Saturday, I would say that they are vulnerable in defence and it would be a shame if this was not truly tested on Wednesday. Unfortunately, I can see a game of few chances if we go for a defensive formation although it would be understandable given the fact that this is just the first leg. An away goal could prove decisive as you would always back the Reds to score at home but my fear is that Rooney will get isolated on his own leading to attempts on goal being low.

Chelsea team options

Although Chelsea have adopted a 4-4-2 formation in recent weeks, I would not be surprised to see them revert to their more familiar 4-3-3 on Wednesday. If this is the case then I could see Mikel being brought into the team as a shield for the centre backs. This formation certainly seems to favour Lampard who is able to break forward safe in the knowledge he has cover behind. His lack of goals and threat has been noticeable since the switch. Similarly, Essien I feel, enjoys the freedom of knowing Mikel is behind him as he certainly has to be more disciplined when in tandem with just Lampard alongside. The Ghana powerhouse is at his most effective when driving from midfield where he will feel he can out-muscle Carrick and Scholes. When he has to concentrate on the defensive parts of his game, he is often found jumping into tackles and conceding needless free kicks.

Another key decision for the Chelsea management will be who to select up front with the decision resting between Drogba and Torres. Anelka looks certain to partner whoever is picked, as the pair mentioned do not look like they can dovetail as a partnership. From the outside, it looks like Drogba is best suited to a lone role in a 4-3-3 whereas Torres may flourish in the alternative formation. The Ivorian scored a wonderful diving header against Stoke and generally looked to be in better form than he has shown this season while Torres again drew a blank for his new club and barely registered a threat. On current form the choice is straight forward but seeing as the Spaniard was bought to win Chelsea the Champions League, he may well be given a chance to break his drought. Although the media make a great deal of the struggles Vidic has with Torres, in fact it has only happened sporadically. As outlined in my West Ham review, the Serbian is vulnerable to pace (who isn't?) and when coupled with being isolated from his colleagues, can commit a rash foul. Over the last year or so, I would assert that Torres has lost a yard of pace after a series of injuries and a loss of form but he clearly is a class player who would love nothing better than upsetting his old rival on such a momentous occasion.

Score Prediction

To be honest, I cannot see a lot of goals and would expect the whole tie to be closely contested. It would not be a surprise to anyone to see the second leg go to extra time and maybe penalties to decide the winner. Both managers will stress the need for patience and I think the true excitement in this tie will come at Old Trafford. From a United point of view, I would look to exploit the Chelsea desperation to win this competition. They know time is running out for this side and that realistically this is the only chance of silverware this season so they will no doubt be nervous about conceding the away goal. With positive attacking intent, United can pray on this mindset and take a decisive lead into the second leg. I can see a 0-1 scoreline with a late Berbatov goal proving the difference. 

Both teams would accept a goalless draw now in my opinion and once again I can see United bringing on some game changers such as the Bulgarian and Giggs and this having the desired effect. With this scoreline, you would expect United to sit back in the second leg and then hit Chelsea on the counter attack with pace from the flanks, similar to how they have played against Arsenal in recent years. 

My prediction for the semi finals would be Barcelona versus Real Madrid and United against Inter. 

What is clear that April and May will prove to be a heart stopping roller coaster of emotions for United fans with so many fixtures being played in such a short space of time. It will be a true test of this squad's ability in all areas and  may well ultimately prove to be one of Sir Alex's greatest ever achievements regardless of how many trophies are claimed.

Do you agree with my thoughts above? Who would you pick and which formation would you play? Please leave a comment below or contact me to Twitter