United vs Chelsea Big Match Preview May 2011

Introduction

Judgement day is nearly here! The 2010-11 Premier League could well be decided on Sunday when the top two meet at Old Trafford. Anything other than a Chelsea win will surely see the title back in the bulging trophy cabinet in Manchester. United's slip against Arsenal last weekend has meant that the Blues have closed the gap to just three points and currently they have a superior goal difference. Many observers feel that if the three points go back to London then the championship will be retained. However, as Robbie Savage (not usually so wise) points out in his weekly Daily Mirror column, with games against Blackburn and Blackpool to follow (both of whom's fate may well be decided by that point) there is a strong possibility that United could overtake their rivals with a glut of goals. To be fair, Chelsea have Newcastle at home next week where a cricket score is possible but they do face a tough final fixture away to Everton. To be honest, if United lose on Sunday such clutching at straws will hit epidemic levels amongst Reds supporters!

United go into the game with an almost perfect home record having only dropped points against West Brom at Old Trafford in their previous 16 matches at Old Trafford. They will also be buoyed by recent back-to-back victories over Chelsea in the Champions League which to many, emphasised a gap in class between the two sides. At this late stage of the season, injuries do not seem to be affecting either side to any great degree so a battle royale is expected with no quarter given or asked. As our American friends would bill it, it is very much "the irresistible force meets the immovable object". 

The Opposition

Carlo Ancelotti's men have put together a wonderful run as the season heads towards its climax. Eight wins and a draw from their last nine league games is the record of thoroughbreds and one that their London neighbours Arsenal would kill for. In comparison, United have managed five wins and three defeats from the same number of games. The pivotal game for both was on the 1st March when the two teams met at Stamford Bridge. If the Reds had held onto their first half lead then the gap would have risen to an unbridgeable 18 points. Momentum is a wonderful thing to be in possession of and there is no doubt who currently holds the aces on that front.

Overall, Chelsea have a record of seven wins and five defeats from their 17 away games. They are unbeaten away since the 5th January when they played Wolves. An interesting statistic for them is that from 18 games where they have taken the lead, they have won 16 and drawn just two.

I would fully expect Ancelotti to send out his team in their tried and trusted 4-3-3 formation with Drogba as the spearhead up front. The signing of Torres clearly destabilised thinking at Chelsea as pressure from the owner meant that his selection was expected each week. This in turn upset Drogba who was unaccustomed to having to take second billing to the Spaniard for a time. The Torres goal drought meant that plans were quickly revised and the 4-4-2 formation was ditched and as a result, performances have improved. I would be amazed if Torres is anything more than on the bench on Sunday.

The Chelsea midfield selection will be based on Rooney playing for United in the withdrawn role that has proved so successful in recent games. Mikel is therefore likely to be detailed to patrol the Englishman in a similar style to Song last week against Arsenal. This will free up Lampard and Essien to cause damage with forceful forward runs. I would expect Anelka and Malouda to support Drogba.

Tactics

In Chelsea's eyes, they will feel that if they stop Rooney they will stop United. This is the reason for the likely selection of Mikel as outlined above. It will therefore be his role to drag the Nigerian to all parts of the pitch and help create space for others whilst still having a positive effect on the game. In the Champions League game at Old Trafford, Rooney ran the show and seemed to evade the attentions of Essien and hence the reason in employing Mikel in the spoiler role.

As usual in games between these two sides, the wide areas will be key. One of Chelsea's key attacking weapons is left back Ashley Cole and it is an area that United always pay special attention to. This usually means the selection of Antonio Valencia on the right who has been successful in keeping Cole primarily in his own half. United's left back will also play an important role on Sunday. Evra usually does a great job of supporting his winger, running off the back of Anelka who can often be caught ball watching or neglecting his duty to support his full back. If Park is picked, then expect to see Evra on the overlap as much as possible giving Ivanovic a tough afternoon. Park also plays his role as "defensive winger" very well and he will assist Evra when Anelka has the ball and can shadow him if he cuts inside as he often does.

There will be times when Chelsea's three in midfield will have plenty of possession and at these times, expect Rooney to drop back in to hassle Mikel who can be caught in possession or commit a rash foul (in a similar way to Song). Giggs and Carrick (if selected) will need to be wary of the running power of Lampard and Essien and must not allow themselves to be overpowered as Scholes and Carrick were in the Stamford Bridge league fixture.

United

When picking the above team, there were only a few considerations to make and this is the way it should be as we head towards the climax of the season. 

I have chosen Fábio at right back ahead of his brother and O'Shea purely as last weekend he was the man in possession and had done nothing in recent performances that warranted a change. He should get lots of space down the right with Malouda often drifting inside but he must be on his guard not to get stranded up field when Chelsea break.

On the right wing, I have chosen Valencia for the reasons outlined above. He does well against Cole, is sound from a defensive point of view and will be positive on the attack. His selection is harsh on Nani who has had a consistent and productive season but the Portuguese wide man will be a terrific option from the bench if we need a spark in the final stages.

Up front, I have gone for playing both Hernández and Rooney. It worked well in the Champions League second leg recently and I can see no reason to change. The Mexican was an unused sub on Wednesday so should be fully refreshed and will look to stretch both Terry and Luiz with his movement and energy. There is a possibility that the boss may pick Rooney in a lone role up front and play Anderson in the midfield but this could well hand the initiative to the visitors and would be primarily a negative selection. Giggs and Carrick with the assistance of Rooney should be able to cope centrally and having Hernández up front means that Chelsea will not play too high a back line (and thus condense the play) as they will be concerned about pace over the top. It would have been an interesting choice if Darren Fletcher was fully fit as when on form he offers things that no other first team squad member can. It is hoped that he can regain match sharpness ahead of the Champions League Final on the 28th May.

The United bench on Sunday will be strong with the likes of Berbatov, Anderson, Fletcher, Gibson, O'Shea, Rafael, Owen, Evans and Smalling all jostling for a spot. This emphasises the depth of squad available to the manager as he negotiates his way through the fixture list.

Scoreline Prediction

My thoughts on team selection, formation and scoreline have fluctuated all week to be honest. Following an uplifting display by our squad players on Wednesday, my confidence has returned and I fully expect us to see off Chelsea and secure that coveted 19th league championship. Although our visitors have put together an impressive run over the last nine matches, at no stage could you say that they are in the powerful form of last year where they just blew their opponents away with pace and aggression. Observers have noted that it is United under pressure but Chelsea know that they have to win or it is all but over. Will a barren campaign be tolerated by their trigger happy owner which could mean players and management alike are playing for their futures. I am therefore going to predict a 2-1 United victory. Rooney will open the scoring for United before an Essien equaliser with Hernández putting himself into United folklore with the winner.

Patience may well be the key to Sunday, it is likely to be a tight chess-like battle with neither side willing to give an inch. Where United will prevail (in my view) is on team spirit and will to win. We will have more players who thrive on the big match atmosphere and all are capable of having a decisive impact. To be honest, I would take a draw now as this would keep things as they are and I cannot see us dropping points at Blackburn or at home to Blackpool. However, to win on Sunday would be a statement. One that would broadcast to the country that United are the deserved Champions of the Premier League, a statement that says teams will come and go but we will stand defiant and a statement that finally knocks Liverpool off their effing perch! 

Being six points clear with two games left means we can then begin preparations for the Champions League final at the end of May. Newspaper reports this morning suggested that Sir Alex started to prepare a masterplan on how to beat Barcelona almost from the minute they defeated us in 2009. This would surprise nobody and it will be fascinating to see just what tactical masterstroke he adopts to counter the numerous talents possessed by the Catalan club. Going into that game as Champions of England and the record holder as well would be a fantastic position to be in as we strike for the ultimate prize in European football.

Do you agree with my predictions above? Please feel free to leave a comment below or contact me via Twitter.