Monday 11 April 2011

United vs Chelsea CL 2nd Leg Preview


Manchester United will go into the vital second leg of the Champions League Quarter Final in good spirits after a recent run of results has seen the Reds win their last six games in three different competitions. This run has been compiled after potentially disastrous back to back league defeats against Chelsea and Liverpool. Many observers expected United's season to implode off the back of this but not for the first time, the team has acquired the necessary strength in adversity to continue their assault in all three competitions.

The narrow first leg victory saw United outplay and out think Chelsea for much of the game. The return of Rio Ferdinand brought both experience and composure to the back line as the Reds repelled the Blues challenge and control the game for long periods. The away team will need to break United's grip on midfield that they have held for three out of the four halves of football in the last two games. For this and other reasons, I would expect Chelsea to return to their preferred 4-3-3 formation in an attempt to recapture their early season form.

Tactics
In my view, if Chelsea were to play 4-4-2 tomorrow night they will go out of the competition. Against Wigan on Saturday they reverted to their tried and trusted formation of 4-3-3 and scraped a narrow win. The switch in formations came as a result of the marquee signing of Fernando Torres and was seen as the only way to get both the Spaniard and Didier Drogba in the same team. Both are renowned for preferring to play up front on their own with support coming from deep, but perhaps, with pressure being applied by a certain Russian oligarch, Ancelotti felt obliged to play them both. This ploy has backfired spectacularly with both players out of form and possibly causing disruptions to the dressing room. It is clear to most impartial observers that it is either Torres or Drogba for Chelsea and it would come as no surprise to see the Ivorian returning to Marseille in the summer.

The switch back to a three man midfield will also be welcomed by Frank Lampard whose ability to break forward has been stifled somewhat by the need for greater discipline. I would expect Lampard to be much more prevalent in United's half tomorrow especially as Chelsea go in search of their own away goal to level the tie.

As in the first leg, the set of full backs that has the stronger game may well tilt the balance of favour towards their team. Although Cole was solid on the left for Chelsea, Boswinga was clearly caught out by both Carrick's raking pass and Giggs' sublime first touch and throughout the game looked shaky from a defensive point of view. The same could be said for Patrice Evra, who continued his recent struggles with a nervy display. On the other side, Rafael was solid without being spectacular, reducing Zhirkov to a role on the periphery and still finding time to assist Valencia in attack. The United pair will need to be on their toes in the return leg with Anelka and Malouda likely to be their direct opponents. Neither of the Chelsea duo are natural wingers and will look to come inside at every opportunity which plays into United's hands as they will not get stretched in wide areas. I would expect to see Evra run off the back of his French colleague as often as possible in order to cause havoc for Boswinga. Anelka is not known for tracking back and this could be the area the Reds have most joy. I would expect Valencia and Cole on the other flank to almost cancel each other out from both defensive and attacking viewpoints. Therefore, an overlapping Rafael could be a potent weapon.

As they have the lead in the tie, I would expect United to match their opponents in formation and look to hit Chelsea on the counter attack in a style similar to what we have seen against Arsenal. They know that the away side have to chase the game to some degree and they will surely play narrow to help condense the action. Chelsea's lack of natural width will count against them here as United have shown they can cope with this in the past. When they get the ball, expect the wide men to hug the touchline and take the opportunity to break at pace. The attacking midfielder of the trio that United select will need to make sure that they make their presence felt in the box assisting the lone front man.

United

Above is the United side that I think will take the field. I have just heard Sir Alex's press conference ahead of the game and although Rafael is a doubt, I will stick with him at right back with the rest of the first leg defence taking their places also.

The midfield selection for tomorrow is very interesting. If we all assume that Carrick is a certain pick after his imperious display last week, this leaves two slots available in a 4-3-3/4-5-1 formation. Although Ryan Giggs was excellent last week as part of a two, I am going to opt for Scholes for his passing ability and experience and Ji Sung Park as the attacking one of the trio. The boss has a wealth of options at his disposal and a case could be made for Anderson as the attacking midfielder after his return on Saturday. My reasons for Park would be mainly based on his big game reputation and that his energy and drive will be required in combination with the rather more pedestrian Scholes and Carrick. With Chelsea's weakness at right back, I have gone for Nani on the left as he is quicker and more skilful than either Giggs or Park when they play in this position. He is also ideally suited to the counter attacking style that the Reds are sure to adopt. On the right, Valencia will resume a battle with Cole that dates back a few seasons and appears fairly equal. He is a vital cog in this United machine as he gives so much to the team from both an attacking and defensive point of view.

Up front will surely be Wayne Rooney on his own, charged with the task of unsettling Terry and Ivanovic. He cannot afford to drop deep too often as it will leave the penalty box clear and he must fight against this instinct for the benefits of the team. I would not completely rule out him playing in his usual withdrawn role with either Hernandez or Berbatov ahead of him. This would leave the midfield a little light in my view and would have surely been the formation if we were the ones chasing the game.

With Fletcher being the only first teamer missing from the squad tomorrow, a strong bench could have a decisive role to play. Renowned game changers such as Berbatov, Hernandez, Giggs, Anderson could all lie in wait ready to either close out the game or heaven forbid, chase it!

Score Prediction
Although I am ultimately confident that United will prevail, I fear there will be a few twists and turns before the outcome is decided. I was a little disappointed that the Reds did not press home their advantage last week at Stamford Bridge as an additional goal would have all but ended Chelsea's hopes. As it is, they can be patient themselves and know that even at 0-0 after 70 minutes, just one goal will send the tie into extra time. Some would argue that United are better when they know they have to go out and win the game and throw caution to the wind to some extent. My overall prediction is for a 2-1 United scoreline on the night meaning a 3-1 aggregate win. It would not surprise me to see Chelsea take the lead and that a United switch to 4-4-2 brings its reward late in the game as the away side back line tires. My goalscorers would be Nani and Berbatov (from the bench).

Such an occasion deserves a cracking atmosphere and vital European nights generally bring out the best in the Old Trafford faithful and tomorrow needs to be no different. The tie is in the balance and the much heralded "twelfth man" could be the match winner.

On the back of the manager's press conference, he was keen to stress the importance of momentum and as usual he is spot on. The relaxed manner in which he conducted himself spoke volumes as six wins from six looks to have instilled a deep rooted confidence in both himself and the team. You can sense he can feel the wave of momentum sweeping his side ever closer to yet another trophy haul that will see him placed in an unchallenged position as the best manager of all time.

Do you agree with my predictions above? Please leave a message or contact me via Twitter.

4 comments:

  1. great job on the article. Think you might have gotten the formation right as i can see SAF going with the 4-5-1 formation and counting on those counter attacks to try and get an early lead. and maybe changing it in the second half if it's not paying off by bringing Chicharito in.
    as for the score prediction, either 1-1 draw or 2-1 United- I HOPE!

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  2. Great Preview as usual :) If we manage to score early i think its game over for chelsea as they have to attack more and this will lead to counter attacking oppurtunities for us :) i am going for a 2-0 win for us

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  3. Rafael is out so we put O'shea instead and the rest is perfect nice preview.

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  4. Great preview. I think if we go to a 4-4-2 that we'll look like this:

    Van der Sar
    Rafael - Vidic - Ferdinand - Evra
    Park - Scholes - Anderson - Nani
    Chicharito - Rooney

    I think United win 2-0 and 3-0 on aggregate with Michael Owen coming on late to score.

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