United vs City Big Match Preview

IntroductionAll the usual clichés will be repeated in the run up to to the 157th Manchester Derby at Old Trafford on Saturday. But what is for sure is that the importance of this match-up cannot be underestimated in the lives of both clubs. A win for City and they will feel that a title challenge is finally realistic while a United victory would consolidate their position at the top whilst keeping their rivals at arm length as the season starts to move towards the home straight.
A second consecutive loss for the Reds would be a massive blow after the surprise reversal against Wolves last Saturday. It could be argued that a draw would be accepted by both teams and while this may well have a ring of truth about it, it is not the United way and is only likely to be the blue side of Manchester's view.
Whilst browsing stats for the game, the freakily similar home record that United have in comparison with the same time last season was hard to ignore. After 13 games, the only difference is one loss last year compared to an extra victory this time around with just one extra goal scored (37 to 36). Eight goals have been conceded in both seasons. What it proves is just how much of a stronghold Old Trafford is for the Reds and masks the frankly poor away record this term.
Other key United stats ahead of the game:

• The Reds have won last 9 home games
• Most productive time for goals is first five minutes (8) or last five of first half (9)
• 13 have been scored in last 10 minutes
• Only conceded 5 league goals in first 35 minutes

The Opposition

Roberto Mancini brings his City team to Old Trafford in the league for the first time since he took over from Mark Hughes back in December 2009. The Italian has won only just over half of his 65 games in charge since then.

What cannot be denied is that City are a far stronger team this season. They have the best defensive record and have scored the same amount of goals at home as they have away. This time last year they had let more goals in than they had scored away from home.

City visit Old Trafford on the back of a record of two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five games away with just 8 goals scored and 5 conceded.

Key City stats:

• Have conceded 8 in last 5 minutes in league
• Poor when they go behind - won 1 and drawn 1when losing
• Only scored 11 goals in 11 games against teams in the top half

What the stats and form guide tell us is that City would settle for a goalless draw right now. It is very likely that they will sit back and try to absorb the waves of United attacks while relying on the likes of Tevez and Silva to occupy the United backline. They have an injury doubt in Nigel De Jong whose loss would be a blow for the visitors. The Dutchman epitomises the defensive mindset of the City side and its Italian manager and they do not have a like for like replacement with Viera very much in the twilight of his career. His potential absence would mean more space for the Reds in the midfield battleground and could prove vital in determining the outcome of the match. 

I would expect the City full backs to be very cautious early on as they will be wary of the numerous fast starts that the home team have enjoyed in recent weeks.   

Key Player - Vincent Kompany

With City setting up defensively away from home, I have chosen the key player as their most consistent centre back. Kompany was a highly rated graduate of the Anderlecht academy who broke into their first team at an early age. Regularly linked with United at that time, he moved to Hamburg in 2006 before linking up with City in August 2008 for a fee of £6million.

The 24 year old forms part of a strong set of exciting players for the Belgian national team that could see them finally have an impact at major competitions in the future.

He is quick, reads the game well and has had to contend with numerous different partners at the heart of the defence across his 85 league appearances with City.

Let's hope we see this pose from the Belgian on Saturday!

United

As the season edges towards its climax, I would expect this match to mark a return to the 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 formation for games involving the bigger teams. Seeing as we do not possess world class talent in the centre of midfield, this option, while unpopular with many fans is probably sensible. What is key is that there is plenty of movement and energy from the centre and that is behind my prediction below.

Predicted United team vs City

The defence is likely to see the usual suspects with Chris Smalling replacing the injured Rio Ferdinand. Although, the England captain was ruled out for 2 weeks after injuring his calf in the warm up prior to the Wolves match, there have been a few rumours that he was undergoing intensive treatment in order to get him fit for the derby. This would be a monumental risk and one that is unlikely seeing as there are so many big games to come. Smalling is expected to shake off a minor knock and take his place alongside Vidic although the likes of Brown and Evans (if fit) will come under consideration. What swings the balance in his favour is that his playing style is similar to Ferdinand's and that he has partnered Vidic

The return of the midfield three is a clear ploy to match City in that area to ensure we do not get outnumbered and can help to exercise control. I have gone for Scholes as his experience will be vital and there is still no better passer in the United squad who also has a habit of popping up with an important derby goal. His role will surely be to patrol like a quarterback and supply the ammunition for the likes of Nani and Park on the flanks. Darren Fletcher gets my vote ahead of Michael Carrick for his energy and drive. He is also a renowned "big game" player who will give his all both in defence and attack. He has not been at his best this season but what better game to make a return to the all action style so appreciated by the Old Trafford faithful. The final piece of the midfield jigsaw is Anderson who has had a week off (he was on the bench for Brazil in midweek) and should be fresh and raring to go. His role will be to run at the City midfield and back line and support the forward three as much as possible. As has been noted before, he enjoys playing at home much more than away and it would be great to see him put his stamp on the game. I would expect that if all goes to plan that he is replaced by Carrick after around 70 minutes to help see out the game and a vital three points.

I have gone for Rooney up front on his own simply for the reason that he plays the difficult role better than Dimitar Berbatov. Whether he deserves it on current form is open to question and it would not be a major surprise to see Rooney pushed out wide left to accommodate the top scoring Bulgarian. This would restrict United's threat from the flanks for sure as the Englishman is not a natural wide man and will tend to drift inside. The industry and drive of Ji Sung Park is the selection I have gone for. He is back from the Asia Cup and will have had a full week working at Carrington. The boss tends to favour him in the big games as he will work hard and assist Evra from a defensive point of view. The third left wing option is of course Ryan Giggs who was out of sorts last time out against Wolves so a return to his "game changer" sub role is my pick. If United are behind after an hour, then expect the Welsh legend to be summoned once more and a return to a fluid 4-4-2 formation.

On the bench, I would expect Owen, Carrick, Evans/Brown, O'Shea and possibly Hernandez if he has made it back from his midweek flight.

Score Prediction

I am going to go for a narrow 1-0 victory for United and a goal for Rooney. City will no doubt be happy with 0-0 but I expect us to nick one after half time and then grimly hang on. I doubt it will be pretty to watch but three points will be vital in the title race and leave the opposition struggling to cling onto our coat tails.

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